Research connecting computing, power and thermal management

The rapid growth of large-scale AI workloads, particularly Large Language Model (LLM) training and inference, is fundamentally reshaping the operational dynamics of hyperscale data centers. Unlike traditional cloud workloads, AI-driven jobs exhibit bursty, high-intensity, and rapidly shifting resource demands, often leading to sudden capacity stress that cannot be effectively handled by reactive threshold-based mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a deployment-oriented, burst-aware early warning framework for proactive capacity stress prediction under AI workload surges. We formulate the problem as a high-recall forecasting task over multivariate telemetry windows, with the explicit goal of enabling operational intervention before system degradation occurs. The proposed framework integrates workload intensity, temporal variation, and system pressure signals, and employs a lightweight tree-based learning model to capture nonlinear interactions in highly imbalanced environments. To evaluate the system under realistic conditions, we introduce an AI workload surge injection methodology that simulates burst-driven demand patterns observed in large-scale AI systems. Our XGBoost-based model achieves an ROC AUC of 0.697 and an AP of 0.670, significantly outperforming baseline methods. Under deployment-oriented threshold selection, the framework achieves a Recall of 0.914, enabling the detection of the majority of stress-prone periods with acceptable false-alarm cost. Beyond predictive performance, we show how the proposed framework can be integrated into operational control loops to support proactive actions such as workload throttling and resource scaling. Our results highlight the practical value of high-recall, learning-based early warning systems in enabling resilient and adaptive data center operations in the era of AI-driven workloads.

As data center energy demand approaches grid-level constraints, optimizing conventional server infrastructure is essential for sustainable growth. The long-standing assumption that "cooler is better", i.e., lower CPU temperatures reduce power, does not fully hold for modern low-voltage CPUs, where inverse temperature dependence (ITD) drives higher supply voltages at lower temperatures. This creates a non-monotonic performance-per-watt curve where efficiency peaks at an intermediate thermal point. In this paper, for the first time, we empirically characterize ITD on production Intel Xeon CPUs and demonstrate that efficiency-optimal temperatures are CPU part-specific, and frequently higher than typical data center operating conditions. Measurements from commercial cloud data center platforms (Amazon, Equinix) reveal that approximately half of modern high-power CPUs operate about 10°C below their efficiency-optimal thermal point. By implementing ITD-aware thermal grouping of CPUs and inlet temperature adjustments, data center operators can optimize facility-level cooling and overall sustainability. Our case study shows that this approach can reduce total data center energy by 4-13% without sacrificing performance or reliability.

Large Language Model (LLM) inference workloads are a rapidly growing contributor to data center energy consumption. Optimizing these deployments requires matching specific LLMs to the most efficient GPUs, but operators currently lack the tools to do so without exhaustively profiling each combination. While some predictive models exist, they still require profiling data and struggle to generalize to hardware unseen during training. To address this, we introduce \textit{WattGPU}, featuring two predictive models for mean GPU power draw and Inter-Token Latency (ITL). Our approach leverages only publicly available LLM metadata and GPU specifications, eliminating the need for hardware access or profiling while enabling generalization to unseen NVIDIA server-grade GPUs and LLMs. We evaluate our models using rigorous leave-one-GPU-out and leave-one-LLM-out cross-validation on a dataset of 42 open-source LLMs (0.1B--27B parameters) and 8 GPUs under both offline and server scenarios. The mean power draw model achieves a median absolute percentage error of $\leq3.4\%$ for offline and $\leq13.5\%$ for server scenarios on unseen GPUs, while the latency model achieves $\leq8.5\%$ in server mode, both maintaining strong GPU ranking correlations for server scenarios (Kendall $τ\geq0.76$). Compared to standard physically grounded baselines -- Load-Scaled Thermal Design Power (TDP) for power draw and roofline for latency -- our models reduce median absolute percentage error by approximately 4$\times$ on unseen LLM-GPU combinations for server scenarios or approximately 2$\times$ for completely unseen GPUs. WattGPU's data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/maufadel/wattgpu.

Artificial intelligence depends on large-scale compute resources and their supporting infrastructure. However, AI governance debates treat compute primarily as a technical input rather than as an outcome of investment, ownership, and financial control. This paper examines AI infrastructure investment flows across Africa through a systematic analysis of 46 publicly announced projects totalling USD $12.7 billion between 2019 and 2025. Using a value chain framework, we analyze who invests in AI-relevant infrastructure and where investments concentrate. Our findings reveal a highly concentrated landscape dominated by global data center operators, hyperscale technology firms, and development finance institutions, clustering in South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, and Egypt. We introduce asymmetrical interdependence to describe a structural condition in which capital and physical infrastructure account for 73% of total funding while control remains concentrated in the compute layer among a small number of global technology firms. We argue that compute governance must account for capital flows, ownership, and control, not only geographic access, because these dynamics shape AI compute equity. Infrastructure presence is necessary but insufficient for meaningful governance capacity.

Terrestrial AI training faces an unsustainable energy and water crisis, positioning Orbital Data Centers (ODCs) as a "zero operational carbon" alternative. However, the sub-$10μ\text{s}$ communication latency required for synchronized scientific workloads, such as distributed Large Language Model (LLM) training, forces ODCs into extreme physical density, triggering a critical "Proximity-Thermal Paradox." As these high-density systems scale into Monolithic Structures or Proximity Swarms, they suffer from intense thermal-fluid crosstalk (heat traps in shared cooling loops) and thermal-radiative crosstalk (mutual heating that blocks deep-space cooling radiators). If left unmitigated, this persistent heat stagnation not only triggers severe thermal throttling that degrades training throughput, but also induces severe thermal fatigue, drastically shortening hardware lifespans and generating premature space e-waste. To make orbital AI truly sustainable, this position paper challenges traditional uniform load-sharing. We propose the Thermal-Aware Heterogeneity Thesis, which treats spatial cooling variances as a primary resource management dimension. Building on this, we introduce Thermal-Load Balancing (TLB), a software framework that dynamically migrates these intensive workloads to the coolest available units based on instantaneous fluid temperatures or absorbed radiation. Our analysis demonstrates that TLB resolves thermal bottlenecks to restore Model Flops Utilization (MFU), while simultaneously reducing physical thermal stress. Extending the operational lifespan of orbital hardware is crucial to amortize the massive embodied carbon of rocket launches, outlining a necessary pathway to scale orbital AI without accelerating e-waste.

Thermal management in AI data centers is increasingly challenged by bursty workloads and uncertain heat generation. To prevent thermal violations, existing cooling strategies either enforce conservative, rigid bounds that severely limit grid responsiveness, or rely on forecast-driven controllers that perform poorly under AI workload uncertainty and distribution shifts. To overcome the above challenges, this paper proposes a Contextual Distributionally Robust Optimization (CDRO) framework for grid-interactive cooling control. Unlike standard DRO with fixed ambiguity sets, the proposed approach dynamically adapts the Wasserstein radius using real-time AI and grid context. This safely shrinks uncertainty bounds during stable regimes, unlocking deep demand-side flexibility. Theoretically, we formulate the control as an infinite-dimensional inf-sup problem, derive an exact tractable reformulation for the Wasserstein worst-case expected-cost term, and then derive a tractable conservative deterministic counterpart for the Distributionally Robust Conditional Value at Risk (DR-CVaR) thermal safety constraint. Solved via a scalable nested Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, the CDRO controller achieves near-zero thermal violations under extreme workload spikes in high-fidelity EnergyPlus co-simulations. Simultaneously, it reduces the operational cost premium of robustness by approximately 13.7 percentage points relative to standard Min-Max Model Predictive Control (MPC).

AI data centres consume water for cooling, water scarcity constrains siting, and AI tools can improve water system efficiency. These dynamics are studied separately yet form a feedback loop. This review formalises the Water and AI Feedback Loop, introduces the Water Consumption Impact index to quantify community-scale utility burden, and demonstrates across ten US sites that burden spans three orders of magnitude, from 0.2% to 134% of host capacity.

The growth of artificial-intelligence workloads is increasing the electrical and thermal demands on data-center power-delivery systems, making conversion efficiency, power density, and reliability critical design priorities. This review examines how gallium-nitride (GaN) power devices can be matched to specific stages of the grid-to-load conversion chain, including power-factor correction, isolated DC/DC conversion, 48-V intermediate-bus conversion, and point-of-load regulation. Si, SiC, and GaN are compared using converter-relevant metrics, and lateral, vertical, and specialized GaN architectures are evaluated in terms of voltage scalability, switching behavior, reverse conduction, thermal pathways, gate control, and technology maturity. The analysis shows that GaN provides a stage-dependent rather than universal advantage. Commercial lateral GaN HEMTs are particularly effective in high-frequency, low-to-mid-voltage stages, while specialized and hybrid devices support bidirectional operation, normally-off control, extreme conversion ratios, and integration. Vertical GaN remains an emerging option for higher-voltage and higher-power conversion. A quantitative framework links cascaded converter efficiency to electrical-loss reduction, cooling demand, annual facility energy use, and operational carbon emissions. Broad deployment further requires low-parasitic packaging, disciplined gate-drive and EMI co-design, mission-profile reliability qualification, scalable manufacturing, and supply-chain resilience. GaN is therefore best treated as a stage-specific system lever whose value depends on coordinated device, topology, package, and thermal co-design.